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Scenario 3 Near-certain

Cognitive Stratification

Tier 1: Near-Certain

Economic -3
Social -4
Political -3
Existential -1

Differential access to AI capabilities will create a new axis of social stratification. Those with access to frontier AI systems will enjoy cognitive advantages - in education, work, health, legal, and financial decisions - that compound over time, creating a self-reinforcing caste system based on AI access rather than traditional markers of class.