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Scenario 2 Near-certain

Epistemic Collapse

Tier 1: Near-Certain

Economic -2
Social -5
Political -4
Existential -2

The capacity to generate synthetic text, images, audio, and video that is indistinguishable from authentic content will undermine the epistemic foundations of public discourse. The shared factual reality required for democratic governance will fragment into personalized information bubbles, each internally coherent and externally incompatible.