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The Lens
Since Adam Smith, we have measured national wealth in terms of productive output - goods and services produced by human labor, organized by markets, mediated by institutions. The entire apparatus of economic thought rests on this foundation: labor creates value, markets distribute it, and the wealth of nations rises with the productivity of their people.
AI upends this foundation. If machines can perform cognitive labor - the last domain of human economic advantage - then what is the basis of national wealth? What does it mean for a nation to be rich when its citizens’ labor is no longer the source of its prosperity?
This is not merely an economic question. It is a question about the purpose of nations, the meaning of citizenship, and the social contract that binds a people to their government. If labor is no longer the foundation, what is?
The False Remedies
”Become a plumber”
The most dismissive response to AI disruption is the suggestion to pursue trades that require physical presence. This advice, however well-intentioned, confuses a temporary reprieve with a permanent solution. Physical tasks are not immune to automation - they are merely later in the queue. And an economy of plumbers is not an economy at all.
”The creative economy will save us”
The hope that creativity, art, and culture will become the new economic foundation assumes that these activities can sustain an entire economy. History suggests otherwise. Creative economies are supplementary, not foundational. They flourish when supported by a productive base, not as substitutes for one.
”Own the machines”
The proposal that citizens should own shares of AI capital - through sovereign wealth funds, universal stock grants, or similar mechanisms - addresses the distribution problem but not the meaning problem. A nation of shareholders is still a nation without purpose if no one contributes to the productive enterprise.
What We Actually Need
National
A new theory of national wealth that goes beyond GDP and labor productivity. This means investing in the capabilities - educational, cultural, institutional, civic - that constitute genuine national strength. The wealth of a nation in the AI age may be measured not by what its machines produce, but by the quality of its citizens’ lives, the resilience of its institutions, and the depth of its civic culture.
Global
A global reckoning with the implications of post-labor economics. International institutions, trade agreements, and development frameworks all assume that labor is the primary mechanism through which nations participate in the global economy. When that assumption fails, the entire architecture of international economic relations must be rethought.